Using triangulation techniques from observable market data, I will argue that the distribution of true business value derived from technology projects follows a power law. I will summarise the differences between environments that display power law and normal distributions, focussing in particular on the consequences for risk management. (8mins)

I will then give a brief overview of the principles of evolutionary biology. I will describe how natural selection can be viewed as a risk management engine for complex systems, and apply it to the field of agile software delivery using the notion of “user story as meme”. Amongst other conclusions, I will highlight the importance of project failure isolation boundaries as the key to defensive programme management. (22mins)

In an attempt to keep the subject matter entertaining and the audience engaged, the above ideas will be presented in the style of a “Bill and Ted” adventure. We will follow the main characters as they learn about complex systems from Vilfredo Pareto and Benoit Mandelbrot; discuss causation and predictability with David Hume and Edward Lorenz; learn risk management theory from Harry Markowitz, and evolutionary economics from Joseph Schumpeter. Finally they will get the lowdown on natural selection from Richard Dawkins and Daniel Dennett.

In the final part, I will focus on the practical implications of these ideas. This will include a discussion of real options theory, decision tree analysis, and the consequences for application design in terms of analytics integration and management instrumentation techniques. (10mins)

Time permitting, there will be a short Q & A session at the end.